When Experience Leads You Astray: The Danger of Assumptions in Business Decisions

We all rely on experience. It’s the foundation of confidence, the lens through which we make decisions. History and knowledge give us patterns, and patterns feel safe. But here’s the problem: sometimes those patterns are wrong. 

Assumptions built on past success can blind us to present reality. A decision can have all the hallmarks of being “right”—logical, proven, backed by years of experience—yet fail spectacularly because the world has changed. 

Why Assumptions Are So Dangerous 

  • They feel like facts. 
  • They come from trusted sources: our own history. 
  • They make us believe we’re seeing clearly—when we’re not. 

In business, this is where risks are hidden. We assume customers want what they’ve always wanted. We think the market behaves as it always has. We presume the tools that worked yesterday will work tomorrow. 

The Cost of Being Blind to Assumptions 

When we don’t challenge what we “know,” we miss opportunities. Worse, we make decisions that feel smart but are fundamentally flawed. 

How to Break Free 

  • Question the obvious. What do you believe is true—and why?
  • Look for change. Markets evolve. Technology disrupts. Customers shift.
  • Invite outside perspective. Fresh eyes reveal blind spots.

The strongest businesses aren’t built on certainty—they’re built on curiosity and adaptability. 

So, ask yourself: 

  • What assumptions am I making? 
  • What if those assumptions are wrong? 
  • What would I do differently if I started from zero? 

Your experience is valuable—but only when paired with the courage to challenge it.