Articles|

Overview

This July 2019 report by the McKinsey Global Institute, The Future of Work in America, examines how automation and other trends are reshaping the American workforce, with a focus on the diverging trajectories of local economies, the evolution of jobs and skills, and the implications for people, companies, and communities.

Key Findings

1. Diverging Local Economies

  • The U.S. is a mosaic of local economies with widening gaps.
  • 25 megacities and high-growth hubs (e.g., New York, San Francisco, Seattle, Austin) have generated most job growth since the Great Recession, with high-wage jobs and young, educated workers—but also notable inequality.
  • 54 trailing cities and ~2,000 rural counties face shrinking workforces, higher unemployment, and lower educational attainment.
  • Job growth through 2030 is expected to be concentrated in these dynamic urban areas, while rural and distressed areas are likely to experience flat or negative growth.

2. The Evolution of Jobs and Skills

  • Automation will not eliminate jobs overnight but will change the mix of tasks and skills required.
  • Almost 40% of current U.S. jobs are in occupational categories that are expected to shrink by 2030, particularly in office support, food service, production, and customer service roles.
  • New jobs will be created, particularly in healthcare, STEM, business services, and roles that require personal interaction.
  • Middle-wage jobs are declining, with growth concentrated at the high and low ends of the wage scale.

3. Impact on People

  • Workers with a high school diploma or less are four times more likely to be in highly automatable roles than those with bachelor’s degrees.
  • Hispanic and African-American workers are at higher risk of displacement due to educational disparities and job concentration in automatable roles.
  • Young workers (18–34) and older workers (50+) face unique challenges: nearly 15 million young workers and 11.5 million older workers are in at-risk jobs.
  • Women may be better positioned for future job growth due to their representation in healthcare and personal care roles.

4. Impact on Companies

  • Employers will need to manage complex transitions, including retraining, redeployment, and redesigning workflows.
  • The challenges vary by company footprint and workforce characteristics (e.g., retail chains vs. white-collar headquarters).
  • Investing in employee training and continuous learning will be critical.

5. Community and Policy Implications

  • Communities must focus on job matching, skills and training, economic development, and support for workers in transition.
  • Policy interventions may include affordable housing, digital infrastructure, targeted job training, and portable benefits.
  • Geographic mobility is at historic lows, making it more challenging for workers to relocate to opportunities.

Actionable Recommendations

  • For Employers: Invest in workforce transformation, continuous learning, and internal mobility programs.
  • For Policymakers: Support retraining, modernize the social safety net, and foster economic development tailored to local needs.
  • For Communities: Build coalitions to address local challenges, leverage digital tools for job matching, and invest in infrastructure.

Notable Data Points

  • By 2030, 60% of job growth could be concentrated in 25 cities and their surrounding areas.
  • 25.5% potential displacement rate for Hispanic workers.
  • Approximately 14.7 million young workers and 11.5 million workers over the age of 50 are employed in highly automatable jobs.
  • -3.4 percentage points: projected decline in share of middle-wage jobs by 2030.

Conclusion

Automation, demographic shifts, and local economic conditions will shape the future of work in America. While there are risks of increased inequality and displacement, there are also opportunities for more rewarding jobs and inclusive growth—if stakeholders act boldly and collaboratively.